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A quarter of voters admit their Biden-Trump choice could change in November

More than a quarter of voters may still change their minds about who to back in November, a new poll shows.

Nine percent said in an NPR/Marist poll that they have not yet made a decision, and an additional 25 percent said that while they have a “good idea” of who they will support, they could still change their mind.

The director of Marist College’s Institute of Public Opinion, Lee Miringoff, told NPR that this “takes advantage of the notion that there are still many months ahead.”

Meanwhile, 61 percent of respondents said they will watch next week’s debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Another 24 percent said they would not watch the debate but would follow the resulting news coverage, and 14 percent showed no interest.

Independents were less likely to say they would watch the debate compared to Republicans and Democrats.

Miringoff noted that since debates and party conventions have not yet taken place, voters are more open to waiting and seeing what happens “even if they end up exactly where they were because they interpret these events in ways that reinforce what they already have.” “they think.” .”

Trump and Biden during one of the 2020 debates. The first debate of 2024 is scheduled for next week
Trump and Biden during one of the 2020 debates. The first debate of 2024 is scheduled for next week (AFP via Getty Images)

Younger and non-white voters were more likely to tell pollsters that their vote was still up for grabs: 55 percent of both groups said they were unsure who they would vote for.

Trump and Biden are tied in the poll at 49 percent each in a head-to-head matchup. Biden is making gains with independent voters, going from 42 percent last month to 49 percent in June.

Miringoff said this may be related to Trump’s legal problems. The former president was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to corruptly influence the 2016 election after covering up a money payment to adult actress Stormy Daniels to keep her quiet about an alleged affair in 2006.

Trump also faces charges in connection with his attempts to overturn the 2020 elections in Washington DC and Georgia, as well as charges stemming from his alleged mishandling of classified documents in Florida.

“This may be the group most influenced by the outcomes of Donald Trump’s legal troubles,” Miringoff told NPR. “But independents are much more persuadable in the whole sea of ​​things that are going to affect the outcome of the election.”

While Biden does better among independents, Trump leads among voters who dislike both candidates.

Miringoff noted that some unusual trends are starting to “normalize,” such as Biden’s surprisingly good numbers among white voters. Trump’s lead in that group has increased from six to 12 points since the May poll. Meanwhile, Biden is starting to do better among nonwhite voters, moving from an 11-point lead to 18 points in the last month.

When independent and third-party candidates are included, Trump leads by one point: 42 to 41 percent. Environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F Kennedy Jr receives 11 per cent in the poll. Miringoff said Kennedy gets votes “more or less equally” from Biden and Trump.

Fifty-one percent of voters said Trump should definitely or probably serve time behind bars following the hush money conviction, while 47 percent said he should not.

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